Whilst the labour government and conservative opposition prepare their battle lines for the next election, what are the implications for health spending in the UK?

Both labour and conservative politicians have recently been engaged in press, radio and TV interviews where they have reinforced their parties' commitment to the National Health Service. Labour (in the shape of newly appointed Secretary of State for Health, Andy Burnham) has spent record breaking sums of money on the health service in Britain, but the National Audit Office is unconvinced of the value that has been wrought. Commitment has been made for 5.5% spending increases for Primary Care Trusts up to 2011, but after that there is uncertainty. Burnham has sought to attack the conservatives through pledging commitment to further expenditure post 2011, but knows that the odds do not favour his party's election at present. He also knows the debt mountain that Britain now has and the implications for spending of any type as a result.

The conservatives (in the shape of Shadow Secretary of State for Health, Andrew Lansley) have also pledged financial commitment to the NHS post 2011, and have said that this may mean cuts of up to 10% for some other departments. They know that they would be instantly billed as the 'Party that is going to Destroy the NHS' by labour if they say anything else, of course. What is certain is that every NHS department will be asked to go back to a zero base should the conservatives assume power and make pitches for budget based on delivering on national health priorities (which will be set by the conservatives).

Implications for providers / suppliers of anything to the NHS post 2011 are clear - you must demonstrate how the product either saves the NHS money or delivers a substantially better patient outcome in line with national priorities. If you can't, then selling anything to the NHS is going to be like pushing water up hill. Good business cases will ensure a favourable hearing / sales outcome - and you can expect no favours from anyone if their decision cannot be grounded in a detailed understanding of cost implications. You have been warned...